Embracing Unknown-Unknowns: The Secret Weapon of Great Leaders

On February 12, 2002, then United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld uttered a phrase that would become infamous: “unknown unknowns.” He used it to describe the complexities of evidence surrounding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. For months, pundits, critics, and conspiracy theorists dissected, criticized, and mocked the term. But if we strip away the politics and controversy, “unknown unknowns” reveal something profound about the human condition — and, more importantly, about leadership.

An unknown unknown is exactly what it sounds like: something you don’t even know that you don’t know. It’s the unpredictable, the unseeable, the surprise twists that can catch anyone — whether individuals, businesses, or entire nations — off guard. While unknown unknowns have been part of strategic decision-making for as long as humans have roamed the earth, their ubiquity makes them no less frustrating, mysterious, or potentially catastrophic.

In leadership, grappling with unknown unknowns isn’t optional. Ignoring them can be disastrous, even bordering on professional sabotage. But before we dive deeper into why they matter so much — and how to approach them with resilience — let’s address a reality: Embracing unknown unknowns requires courage and humility.

What Makes Unknown Unknowns So Challenging?

Imagine driving in heavy fog. You know there are obstacles ahead, but you can’t see them. You may slow down, proceed cautiously, and even try different routes, but ultimately, you have limited control over what might appear. Unknown unknowns are like that fog — except they’re not even on your radar until you’ve already crashed into them. They are the proverbial curveballs that life throws when you least expect it, and they can’t be anticipated by traditional planning.

Adding to the complexity is hindsight bias — our tendency to believe, after the fact, that we “saw it coming” all along. Hindsight bias is deceptive; it makes us believe we’re better at predicting outcomes than we really are. When faced with unknown unknowns, this bias skews our perception, making us prone to blame, defensiveness, and rigidity. Leaders who fall into the trap of hindsight bias risk compounding mistakes by doubling down on faulty assumptions.

How to Navigate the Realm of the Unknown

So, if you can’t plan for a specific unknown unknown, how do you prepare for them? How do you lead when you can’t predict every twist and turn? The answer lies in cultivating open-minded exploration, curiosity, and adaptability. Here’s how you can strengthen your ability to thrive amid the unpredictable:

1. Be Intentional About Seeking New Experiences. Unknown unknowns become less frightening when we regularly immerse ourselves in the unfamiliar. Challenge yourself to break routines. Try new foods, explore unfamiliar neighborhoods, visit new countries, engage with people from different backgrounds and perspectives. These experiences expand your mental framework and prepare you to adapt when life throws you the unexpected.
2. Cultivate a Habit of Curiosity. Curiosity may have killed the cat, but it will save the leader. When you approach situations with genuine curiosity, you reduce the likelihood of falling into confirmation bias — the tendency to see only what aligns with your pre-existing beliefs. Ask more questions. Seek out contrary viewpoints. Surround yourself with people who think differently from you. This approach creates a richer understanding of the world and improves your ability to detect and respond to the unknown.
3. Build a Culture of Openness. Encourage your team to surface unexpected issues, question the status quo, and propose out-of-the-box ideas. Leaders who foster a culture of openness — where new perspectives are welcomed, and mistakes are seen as learning opportunities — are better equipped to pivot and respond when unknown unknowns strike.
4. Leverage Diverse Perspectives. The more cognitively diverse your circle, the better your chances of spotting potential unknowns before they become disasters. Seek out people with different life experiences, backgrounds, and areas of expertise. Diverse teams are more likely to challenge assumptions, see blind spots, and generate creative solutions.
5. Embrace Failure as a Learning Tool. Unknown unknowns are often revealed in moments of failure. Instead of retreating into defensiveness, embrace these moments as opportunities for growth. Reflect, learn, and adapt. Leaders who build resilience in the face of failure are more likely to turn unexpected challenges into steppingstones for success.

Moving Beyond Fear and Into Opportunity

There is a reason why so many people fear the unknown: it represents uncertainty, risk, and potential failure. But as leaders, we cannot allow fear to drive our decisions. When we embrace the reality of unknown unknowns, we free ourselves from the illusion of total control. We become more adaptable, open, and prepared to navigate whatever comes our way.

Being a resilient leader in the face of unknown unknowns means being proactive, not reactive. It’s about recognizing that we will never have all the answers — and being okay with that. It’s about focusing on what you can control, staying curious, and viewing change and disruption not as threats, but as opportunities to grow.

Practical Tips for Embracing the Unknown

If you want to build your resilience against unknown unknowns, consider incorporating these curated practices into your routine:

1. Host “What If” Sessions: Regularly gather your team to explore potential scenarios — both likely and unlikely — and discuss how you might respond. This builds a culture of preparedness. Some people refer to this practice as premortems (vs. postmortems).
2. Read Widely and Eclectically: Step outside your field of expertise. Read fiction, history, science, and cultural commentary. The broader your knowledge base, the better equipped you’ll be to recognize patterns and make connections.
3. Get Comfortable with Discomfort: Put yourself in unfamiliar situations on purpose. Take up a new hobby, learn a new skill, or attend an event where you know no one. Embracing discomfort makes you more resilient in the face of the unknown.
4. Practice Mindfulness and Reflection: Take time to pause, reflect, and reassess. Mindfulness helps you stay grounded in the present and reduces stress, allowing you to better manage unforeseen challenges.

Embrace the Journey

In leadership and in life, unknown unknowns are inevitable. But they don’t have to paralyze or define us. When we choose to embrace uncertainty, we become stronger, more adaptable, and more prepared to lead in a complex world.

Are you ready to embrace the unknowns in your life and lead with courage, clarity, and resilience? Let’s take this journey together. I’m here to help you explore, adapt, and thrive — no matter what the future holds. Because in the end, it’s not about controlling the unknown — it’s about leading boldly through it.

Matthew Kutz, Ph.D. — www.matthewkutz.com